2025 Automotive Predictions - SSO Report

[xeryn388]

It’s crazy how fast things are shifting. I get Porsche’s need to keep some ICE models around for now—EV infrastructure just isn’t there yet. But the emotional connection to cars is definitely fading for a lot of people.

For the younger crowd, a car is more like a tool to get from A to B, and that’s it. It’s kind of sad when you think about it, but I guess it’s just how things evolve. The car culture we grew up with won’t be the same for future generations.

[blueline]

It’s crazy how fast things are shifting. I get Porsche’s need to keep some ICE models around for now—EV infrastructure just isn’t there yet. But the emotional connection to cars is definitely fading for a lot of people.

For the younger crowd, a car is more like a tool to get from A to B, and that’s it. It’s kind of sad when you think about it, but I guess it’s just how things evolve. The car culture we grew up with won’t be the same for future generations.

Sadly for many that's true. However, there are magnificent pockets of young people who are every bit as ardent and passionate about vehicles in the classical sense, the same us those of us who are more seasoned.

This is but one example - there are others.

https://www.carpokes.com/viewtopic.php?t=2086

Hagerty and the capable team at Hagerty Media are doing yeoman's work helping to keep the car culture alive. The future still has many bright spots!

[blueline]

From today's PCA eBrake news was this short piece reinforcing what's generally already known or expected, the difference being increasing acknowledgement from Porsche itself. I'm glad they are reversing course, at least to a degree.

"Porsche Is Pivoting Back to Combustion. It Will Cost Them Dearly"

https://www.motor1.com/news/750016/pors ... st-dearly/

[RDMcG]

Will be quite a challenge as they have to meet the increasingly strict environmental standards in Europe and then figure out how to sell to China which has pivoted to EVs. Not a simple set of options.

I will hang onto my current cars and wait a while to see how this develops.

[blueline]

A new report from SSO with his latest take on a couple of developments at Porsche (and Aston Martin).

"A Few Thoughts: Porsche & Aston Martin"

https://ssoreport.com/thoughts-feb-25

A snippet from SSO:

The Chairman of the Porsche Supervisory Board is Oliver Blume who is also the CEO of both Porsche AG and Volkswagen AG. Simplistically Blume, as CEO, is firing the Finance, Sales, & Marketing Heads. The more polite term is they are being packaged out. I would guess that Blume is clearly feeling the heat from Porsche’s controlling shareholders. He is now likely on the clock to get it turned around and if the 2025 results look like the 2024 results, he may be moving on to “pursue outside opportunities & spend more time with his family”.

ThoughtsFeb2503.webp (93.76 KiB) Viewed 2481 times

[blueline]

PS - the photo of the crashed 959 in my previous post is from 2018. The car still brought $467,500 that year at auction in that same wrecked condition according to Top Gear.

https://www.topgear.com/car-news/secret ... -cali-2018

[blueline]

From WSJ today regarding Nikola. The company has ceased operations and the few remaining assets liquidated.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/nikola-bank ... _permalink

Talk about hype, deceptions. and fraud, (The founder, Trevor Milton, was convicted in 2022).

Some nuggets:

"According to a 2021 federal fraud indictment of founder Trevor Milton, an inoperable prototype was towed to the top of a hill. Then Nikola employees released the brakes so it looked like it was cruising along. All the while the door was taped shut to keep it from falling off, and its batteries were removed to prevent the truck from catching fire."

"Nikola reportedly had sold hydrogen trucks for $351,000—about half what it cost to produce them, though its sales price was still about twice as much as an internal-combustion-engine semi."

The one-time market cap of $27 billion gone. The hype was eaten up by supposedly sophisticated investors and companies alike (aka GM).

[blueline]

SSO comments regarding MB's and Rivian's 2024 results that were released this week. One word I would apply is "crappy". Actually, two words, "very crappy". MB's German sales were horrid. Meanwhile, Rivian must be smoking something illegal. Mountains to climb for both companies.

https://ssoreport.com/mb-rivian-2024-results

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[RDMcG]

It is not an optimistic time for the industry.

[blueline]

There are some good observations dovetailing with this thread in the new issue of Panorama (February), specifically 'Editor's Note' by Rob Sass (p8) and 'Street Talk' by Bob Rassa (p24).

Screenshot_2025-02-25_18-15.png (269.4 KiB) Viewed 2253 times

https://ww2.pca.org/pano/feb-2025/#page=1

Panorama has generally been quite good in telling it like it is - the good and the not so good - and that continues in this issue with a few critical concerns regarding Porsche's current situation and perceived direction.

Big concerns outlined include the potentially tumultuous year ahead due to the plunge in the Chinese market, EV lethargy in general, the ill-advised (and now delayed) launch of the all-EV 718s, other EV miscues, the utter and complete lack of any Porsche sports car even faintly resembling an entry level model, and more.

On the plus side was that out of the 32 vehicle brands on the Consumer Reports 2025 Brand Ranking list, Porsche ended up tied for 3rd (with Lexus) The CR list aggregated scores based on vehicle performance, owner satisfaction, safety and reliability. VW was a very poor #26 while Rivian and Jeep brought up the rear at #31 and #32 respectively.

Screenshot_2025-02-25_18-16.png (69.89 KiB) Viewed 2253 times